The Conference Board of Canada’s latest economic forecast points to somewhat stagnant conditions in Greater Sudbury paired with a slow-burning turnaround during the next two years.
While certain economic indicators are slated to decline this year, Greater Sudbury is anticipated to reclaim these losses in 2025 and hit pre-pandemic peaks by the following year.
“A tepid national economy and uneven commodity prices signal weakness in Sudbury, a city synonymous with mining,” according to the forecast, which points to nickel prices which peaked in March 2022 and were less than half that level by July 2024.
“Unsurprisingly,” given nickel prices, “Greater Sudbury’s economy has struggled.”
Despite an earlier forecast this summer pointing to a GDP surging beyond pre-pandemic peaks, it has yet to reach these heights.
A further 0.3 GDP contraction is forecast for this year, followed by a 1.7-per-cent jump in 2025 and a further two per cent in 2026-28, with the region returning to its 2019 pre-pandemic height by 2026.
Meanwhile, employment is still below its 2019 level of 87,300 workers despite three straight years of growth, including a 1.7-per-cent gain in 2023.
With a 2.9-per-cent job loss in 2024 regained in 2025, the forecast anticipates local employment will finally surpass its pre-pandemic high by 2026.
While service industries, goods-producing sectors, health care and other fields are forecast to see a drop in numbers this year, accommodation, food services, transportation and warehousing jobs are on the rise.
“As elsewhere, residential construction is struggling to deliver needed homes,” the forecast notes — a point Greater Sudbury city council has narrowed in on in recent months with their work on a Housing Supply Strategy.
Despite this city council effort and the city surpassing its provincially assigned housing goals, the report notes, “The area’s ratio of housing starts to population growth hit a nine-year low in 2023 and will be little changed this year.”
“Despite strong population growth and resulting decent residential demand, Sudbury housing starts are on track to fall for the third straight year after hitting a recent peak of 434 units in 2021,” the report notes. “Last year’s 268 units were well below Sudbury’s 20-year starts average near 380 units.”
High interest rates, labour shortages and high material costs may be to blame, the report notes, adding that an interest-rate decline and ongoing population growth will boost starts above the 300-unit mark in 2025, where it’s anticipated to remain in forecast years.
“Sudbury’s relative affordability will foster ongoing demand for single-family units—an endangered species nationally,” the report notes. “We think about 40 per cent of starts will be singles in 2025–28, compared with fewer than 25 per cent nationally.”
The city’s construction output contracted by 3.3 per cent in 2023 and is anticipated to shrink by an additional 1.1 per cent this year before expanding by 3.9 per cent in 2025 and 4.9 per cent in 2026 “as various projects ramp up and housing starts rise.”
Local manufacturing is anticipated to contract by 0.8 per cent this year before bouncing back with a 2.9-per-cent jump in 2025, while retail sales are anticipated to contract by 1.5 per cent this year before bouncing back with a 3-per-cent jump next year.
The report flags a number of large-scale projects on Greater Sudbury’s horizon, including the downtown events centre and the Sandman Hotel Group’s 223-suite and two-restaurant project at the former Ambassador Hotel site.
It also mentions Panoramic Properties’ planned redevelopment of the long-vacant Paris Street hospital site into 530 residential units, but noted, “Local residents are skeptical and the project faces other procedural hurdles. No timeline has been announced.”
Although Panoramic Properties has declined to answer questions on the project, Tulloch Engineering planning manager Kevin Jarus told the planning committee of city council in April that the project would be underway “within five years.”
Tyler Clarke covers city hall and political affairs for Sudbury.com.
