On October 10, 2007 Ontarians will be asked to vote in a referendum to change the electoral system. This article looks at the possible scenarios and their implications for Northwestern Ontario.
The present paradox
In June 2005, the Ontario Legislature began a process to review the electoral system, mostly as a result of recurring criticism over the apparent paradox of having a political party come to power with fewer total votes than the opposition. This paradox is the result of a system that allows for strategic voting in certain ridings (i.e. winning with a small majority of votes in key areas), while allowing the opposition to win with a larger margin in others areas where there is no possibility of winning. Obviously, the party that wins the most ridings will form a government, even though the popular vote may have gone to the losing party.
The other criticism is levelled at the inability (under the present system) of smaller parties to have any chance of winning a seat or have any representation at all in government even if they get a good percentage of the popular vote. In fact, even though the environment is now a predominant issue in voters’ mind, the possibility of the Green Party to win a seat in Ontario is still very small.
The present electoral system goes back to the days of Confederation and therefore not easy to reform. In fact, it will require a Referendum and to that end, the Citizens’ Assembly on Electoral Reform (an independent body representing electors in Ontario) was created in March 2006 and after intensive consultation with the public recommended a referendum to choose between the present system and a Mixed Member Proportional System. So, how will the North benefit from a chance to the present system, if at all?
How would the North benefit?
First of all, let us look at our representation under the present system. Due to a decline in population and redrawing of ridings’ boundaries in recent years, our political representation has gone from 15 to 11 seats. This fact, and the feeling of isolation and alienation, due to the dramatic shift in economic fortunes of Northern Ontario, has placed a heavy burden on the local politicians. The winds of change are blowing hard and with a possible minority government in the making, every seat is crucial.
Having witnessed that provincial governments do tend to pay more attention to us in the North when faced with minority situations, it would seem plausible that this is a scenario that Northern Ontario would favour regardless of the outcome of the referendum. If those proposing a change to the present system actually get their double majority required (60% of all referendum ballots across the province, and 50% of all voters in at least 64 electoral districts), the elected government will be obliged to pass legislation (by December 31, 2008) to ensure that the new system is implemented.
Proportional representation
The key point to remember under the proposed system is the number of seats in parliament would change from 107 electoral districts to 129 seats made up of 90 “local members” and 39 “list members.” Voters would vote twice, once for the local member (the same as now) and one more time for the list member (basically voting for the party that the list members would represent). This is meant to ensure at the end of the day that the number of seats a party would have in the legislature would closely represent the total vote that the party received.
Those who favour this approach indicate that it will provide a better representation of minority groups in parliament, and allow for a more balanced approach in representing the wishes of the voting public. It will also make it more difficult to get majority government, a situation that has favoured the North in the past as even a couple of seats can hold the balance of power.
In conclusion, regardless of the outcome of the coming election, the issues of Northern Ontario are so different than southern Ontario that to have a meaningful basis for effecting positive changes to our economic and political reality, we need to go to the source of the problem. That is, the need for decision making powers at the local level to enable this region to finally “Awaken its Giant” potential.
Frank Pullia is the Principal of Pullia Accounting & Consulting and a Councillor in the City of Thunder Bay. He can be reached at (807) 767-6579 or via e-mail at frank@frankpullia.com