By NICK STEWART
Efforts to adjust to the province’s proposed energy mix may raise the price of energy by at least 15 per cent over the next 20 years, according to Paul Shervill, vice-president of conservation and sector development for the Ontario Power Authority.
Speaking at the 10th NORCAT / Northern Ontario Business Opportunity Series (NNOS) breakfast Nov. 20, Shervill said the OPA’s plans to meet stringent conservation targets and capital expenditures by 2027 will require $60 billion worth of increases in energy rates.
“That’s the reality of having a safe, reliable, sustainable electricity system in Ontario, given the policy constraints that we have,” Shervill says, adding that the 15 per cent increase is over and above standard inflation.
“We all know we need electricity to survive, and there’s no question it’s going to cost us more than we’re paying today.”
Factors in these increases include the government’s plans to phase out the use of coal by 2014 and restore three nuclear power plants for another 20 years.
With nuclear power making up half the province’s energy capacity, this means that 80 per cent of the province’s power supply will need to be replaced in the next two decades, he says.
This will require roughly $60 billion in funding, of which $10 billion will be used for conservation initiatives, $46 billion on new generation and $4 billion for the installation of new transmission lines.
These numbers are outlined in the OPA’s Integrated Power System Plan, a 7,000-page document which details the organization’s outlook and action over the next 20 years. In order to keep pace with technology and social changes, it will be updated every three years.
While it was filed with the Ontario Energy Board in late August, the plan is in its preliminary stages, as it must still go through further analysis and public hearings in the next year before it is fully approved in early 2009.
Darryl Lake, executive director of NORCAT, says that a 30 per cent increase would devastate industry across the province, while there’s no telling what effect the projected 15 per cent will have.
As a result, it’s important to have sessions such as the breakfast series to see the OPA’s perspective on the future of energy.
“Solar ain’t gonna do it all, and wind ain’t gonna do it all, so we have to have a plan,” Lake says. “It’s not just curiosity, it’s about staying alive.”
The next two entries in the Opportunity Breakfast Series will explore similar questions, as expressed by the interest of the participants. On Jan. 15, NNOS will host a senior official with Natural Resources Canada to hear about its mineral policy for the nation. On March 18, attendees will hear from a senior official with the Canadian Space Agency.
